Question: Recently, some international media outlets and research institutes have been following China’s demographic changes, even suggesting that China is “losing its demographic dividend” or facing a “demographic crisis”. How does China see its demographic development and its impact on economic and social progress?
Embassy Spokesperson: Population is a core element in national development and a strategic resource for modernisation. Talk of China losing its demographic dividend or facing a demographic crisis overlooks the combined role of China’s population scale, talent pool and institutional environment. China has over 1.4 billion people. Its working-age population, aged 16 to 59, totals 851 million, far more than the combined labour forces of major developed economies in Europe and the US. This vast population base, together with an enormous domestic market, provides a solid foundation and enduring resilience for economic growth.
A demographic dividend depends on talent quality and effective labour, not on sheer population size. In China, young people entering the workforce have an average of 14 years of education, while the working-age population averages 11.3 years of education. The continuous accumulation of a high-quality workforce is driving growth in total factor productivity. Rising education levels and an improved demographic structure are unlocking the potential of the labour force, providing strong support for technological innovation and industrial upgrading.
Changes in the demographic structure are creating space for industrial upgrading and institutional innovation. By optimising childbirth policies, improving the eldercare system, and raising the retirement age, China is accelerating industrial upgrading and labour productivity growth, achieving a “quality dividend” that complements the “quantity dividend”. The concentration of population in cities and the marked trend towards integration of urban and rural labour markets are continuing to strengthen regional economic vitality and industrial synergy.
China’s demographic advantage is also reflected in the potential of its elderly population. Among those aged 60 and above, healthy and relatively young elderly individuals account for more than 55%, totalling over 150 million. They can both participate in the workforce and help drive growth in such emerging sectors as healthcare, smart eldercare and cultural tourism. The effective leverage of elderly human resources is providing new momentum to China’s economic and social development.
China’s demographic strengths are steadily shifting from a scale dividend to a talent dividend, and from a quantity dividend to an institutional dividend. The synergy of a high-quality workforce, institutional innovation and technological progress is generating sustained momentum for stable economic growth, industrial upgrading and social innovation. China’s demographic development not only underpins the stable performance of the economy, but also shapes China’s future economic and social landscape through its talent pool and innovation capacity.
